Incentive inversion · United States
Nearly three in ten recovered kidneys are never transplanted — 11,244 organs went unused in 2024
In 2024 the United States recovered organs from 16,989 deceased donors and performed 46,750 solid organ transplants. In the same year 11,244 organs were recovered for transplant and then not transplanted — an 11.5 percent rise from 10,085 in 2023, and 20.7 percent of all organs …
- Resolution status
- not confirmed
- Checked
- 2026-08-07
- Evidence type
- SecondaryPress reports and institutional documents
- Outlet
- not recorded
- Authoring mode
- Derived from press reports
- Views
- 37
What is happening?
In 2024 the United States recovered organs from 16,989 deceased donors and performed 46,750 solid organ transplants. In the same year 11,244 organs were recovered for transplant and then not transplanted — an 11.5 percent rise from 10,085 in 2023, and 20.7 percent of all organs recovered combined, a share the annual data report says has increased every year since 2018.
Kidneys carry most of it. 29.3 percent of recovered kidneys were not transplanted in 2024, against 18.2 percent in 2013. That is 9,103 kidneys — 4,425 left, 4,506 right and 172 recovered en bloc — taken from consented donors, offered through the match system, and then thrown away.
Through 2024 the number of donors was going up and the yield per donor was going down. Organs transplanted per deceased donor fell to 2.66 in 2024 from 3.08 in 2013.
Whose problem is this?
| Role | Who |
|---|---|
| Affected | The more than 100,000 people on a US transplant waiting list at any one time, more than 90,000 of them waiting for a kidney |
| Raised by | The OPTN and SRTR annual data reports · transplant researchers · a House Committee on Energy and Commerce oversight hearing on 2025-07-22 |
| Decides | Transplant programs accept or refuse each offer · organ procurement organizations recover the organ and run the match · CMS certifies the organ procurement organizations · HRSA runs the OPTN |
| Bears the cost | The candidate who stays on the list · the donor family whose consent produced no transplant |
The body that recovers an organ does not decide whether it is used, and the program that decides is not measured on what happens to the offers it turns down.
Where does this problem end?
| Axis | This is the problem | This is not the problem |
|---|---|---|
| What | Organs recovered from consented deceased donors and then never transplanted | Organs from consented donors that were never recovered at all are outside the annual data report and outside this entry |
| The overall supply of donors is a separate problem | ||
| Who | Candidates on a waiting list and the families who consented to donation | Living donation is out of scope |
| Where | The United States | No comparison with other countries was examined |
| When | Nonuse rates 2013 to 2024 · donation and transplant counts through 2025 | The history of allocation policy was not examined |
| Scale | 11,244 organs in 2024 · 29.3 percent of recovered kidneys | Deaths caused by a specific unused organ are not established here |
The boundary matters because the loss is not a shortage of willing donors. Consent was already given and the organ was already removed before the failure happened.
What is the state now, and what should it be?
Now
| Indicator | Value | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Organs recovered for transplant and not transplanted | 11,244 | 2024 · OPTN/SRTR |
| Same figure a year earlier | 10,085 | 2023 |
| Nonuse as a share of all organs recovered combined | 20.7 percent | 2024 |
| Kidney nonuse rate | 29.3 percent | 2024 |
| Kidney nonuse rate eleven years earlier | 18.2 percent | 2013 |
| Kidneys recovered and not used | 9,103 | 2024 |
| Organs transplanted per deceased donor | 2.66, down from 3.08 in 2013 | 2024 |
| Deceased donors | 16,989, of which 9,705 after brain death and 7,284 after circulatory death | 2024 |
| Deceased donors the following year | 16,550, down 2.5 percent | 2025 |
| Solid organ transplants | 49,064 | 2025 |
| Kidney transplants | 27,573 — 21,052 from deceased donors and 6,521 from living donors | 2025 |
| People waiting at any one time | more than 100,000, more than 90,000 of them for a kidney | 2026-01 |
What it should be
Needs a new measurementno official target for the nonuse rate appears in any document opened for this entry. CMS certifies organ procurement organizations against a donation rate and a transplantation rate under a three tier rule, and the OPTN grades transplant programs on offer acceptance and on survival after transplant, but none of the sources read here names a level that the share of recovered and unused organs is supposed to reach.
How big is it?
The affected population used here is the people waiting. In 2024, 167,230 unique patients were on a waiting list for a solid organ transplant in the United States, with 70,600 added during that year. At the start of 2026 more than 100,000 people were waiting at any one time.
Those two figures answer different questions. The larger one counts everybody who appeared on a list at any point in a calendar year and the smaller one counts everybody on a list on a single day, so the width of that range is the gap between annual prevalence and point prevalence rather than a margin of error.
The annual harm is a separate and smaller number: 11,244 organs recovered and not transplanted in 2024, of which 9,103 were kidneys. Those are organs and not people — kidneys recovered en bloc go to one recipient — so the count of transplants forgone is somewhat below the count of organs.
Under what conditions does it arise?
1. Two scorecards held by two different parties. CMS measures each organ procurement organization on a donation rate and a transplantation rate under a three tier rule in which the lowest tier is decertified. The OPTN measures each transplant program on offer acceptance and on how its recipients do afterwards. Neither party is graded on the joint outcome, which is whether a recovered organ reaches a person. 2. Refusing an offer costs the refuser nothing that its own numbers will show. A study of 193 adult transplant centers covering 2021-04 to 2023-12 found that kidneys the authors classed as suboptimal were refused by a median of 9 centers, against a median of 5 refusals for the other kidneys. 3. The donor pool has been shifting toward donation after circulatory death. An analysis published by a donation and transplantation trade body in 2023 puts that share at 25 percent of all donations in 2020 and 35 percent in 2023, and reports that the count of recovered kidneys that were not usable more than doubled over the previous four years. Of the 16,989 deceased donors in 2024, 7,284 were donation after circulatory death. 4. The rule that would remove the weakest performers has not landed yet. CMS issued a proposed rule under docket CMS-3409-P on 2026-01-28 and took comments to 2026-03-31; a law firm reading of that rule published on 2026-02-13 reports that CMS has previously estimated that roughly half of all existing organ procurement organizations would not qualify for automatic recertification.
Every one of these conditions is defensible on its own terms and none of them requires anybody to behave badly. That is what makes the state stable rather than scandalous.
What has been tried?
| Attempt | By whom | What was done | When |
|---|---|---|---|
| Three tier certification of organ procurement organizations | CMS | A donation rate and a transplantation rate set as outcome measures, with the lowest tier facing decertification | Final rule 2020 |
| Proposed rule CMS-3409-P | CMS | Further guidance on how the tiers apply and how decertification proceeds; comments closed 2026-03-31 | 2026-01-28 |
| Survey guidance to donor hospitals and procurement bodies | CMS | A quality, safety and oversight memo plus a State Operations Manual update requiring surveyors to cite noncompliance on identification regardless of later correction | 2026-03-11 |
| New performance metrics for transplant programs | OPTN Membership and Professional Standards Committee | Added 90 day and one year conditional graft survival, offer acceptance, and pre-transplant mortality | Approved 2021-12, released from 2022-07 |
| OPTN modernization | HRSA | Selected the American Institutes for Research as the OPTN Board Support contractor | 2024-08 |
| Congressional oversight | House Committee on Energy and Commerce, Oversight and Investigations Subcommittee | A hearing on organ procurement and transplant oversight | 2025-07-22 |
The attempts sit on both sides of the gap. One set pushes recovery up and another set grades what programs accept, and no source read here reports a measured fall in the nonuse rate that follows any of them.
What was found?
| Finding | Observed value | Evidence grade |
|---|---|---|
| Nonuse is rising rather than falling | 11,244 organs in 2024, up 11.5 percent from 10,085 in 2023; the share has risen every year since 2018 | high — OPTN/SRTR annual data report |
| Kidneys carry most of the loss | 29.3 percent nonuse and 9,103 kidneys in 2024, against 18.2 percent in 2013 | high — same report |
| Yield per donor fell while donors rose | 2.66 organs transplanted per deceased donor in 2024, from 3.08 in 2013 | high — same report |
| The donor count itself turned downward in 2025 | 16,550 deceased donors, down 2.5 percent, described as the first dip in more than a decade | medium — OPTN data reported by UNOS |
| Programs differ widely in what they will accept | Suboptimal kidneys refused by a median of 9 centers against 5 for other kidneys, across 193 adult centers from 2021-04 to 2023-12 | medium — peer reviewed study published 2026-01-12 |
| About half of the procurement bodies would not clear the automatic bar | CMS has previously estimated that approximately half of all existing organ procurement organizations would not qualify for automatic recertification and would have to compete to retain their service areas | medium — law firm reading, not the rule text |
| Waiting list deaths were falling before this window closed | 13 per day in 2023 against 16 per day in 2021 | medium — UNOS, 2025-04-14 |
| Variation between centers persisted under the 2021 allocation policy | The study authors report substantial center-level variation in acceptance of suboptimal kidney offers continuing under the kidney allocation policy launched 2021-03-15, and separately suggest that the recent removal of survival rate metrics from the conditions of participation of Medicare might help mitigate risk aversion | medium — same study |
| Effect of any single reform on the nonuse rate | not confirmed — the offer acceptance metric was released 2023-07 and nonuse rose 11.5 percent the following year, but no source opened here attributes that movement to it in either direction | low |
Why is it still unsolved?
Incentive inversion — two scorecards, held by two different parties, and neither one is scored on whether a recovered organ reaches a person.
An organ procurement organization is certified by CMS against a donation rate and a transplantation rate, and under the three tier rule the lowest tier is decertified. CMS has estimated that roughly half of the existing organizations would not qualify for automatic recertification and would have to compete to retain their service areas. All of the pressure on that side of the handoff runs toward finding donors and recovering organs.
The other side is not unmeasured, and that is the part worth saying plainly. The OPTN added an offer acceptance metric for transplant programs and released it in 2023-07, so refusals are watched. What happened next is that nonuse rose 11.5 percent, from 10,085 organs in 2023 to 11,244 in 2024. The same scorecard also carries survival after transplant, and the two halves pull against each other — an accepted marginal organ that fails is written into the outcome a program is judged on for years, while a refusal is a line in a monitoring report that no patient outcome ever contradicts.
The researchers who measured 193 adult centers from 2021 to 2023 found suboptimal kidneys refused by a median of 9 centers against 5 for the rest. They report that substantial variation between centers continued under the kidney allocation policy that launched in 2021, so changing how an organ is offered did not by itself narrow the spread in what programs will take. Those same authors suggest that the recent removal of survival rate metrics from the conditions of participation of Medicare might help mitigate risk aversion, which is a hope they state for the future rather than a result they measured.
Both sides are behaving rationally and the joint result is the number in the title. Recovery went up, refusals went up alongside it, and organs transplanted per deceased donor fell from 3.08 to 2.66 through 2024. Nobody in the chain is graded on the distance between those two movements, which is exactly where the failure sits.
What observation would mean it is solved?
Candidates — (a) the kidney nonuse rate falls back toward the 18.2 percent of 2013 (b) organs transplanted per deceased donor rises back toward 3.08 (c) the absolute count of organs recovered and not transplanted falls below 11,244 and keeps falling.
(a) is a ratio and the cheapest way to improve a ratio is to shrink its denominator. If procurement bodies stop recovering marginal kidneys the rate improves while fewer people are transplanted.
(b) moves with the donor mix. Younger and healthier donors yield more organs each, so this can rise without a single acceptance decision changing.
(c) can be satisfied by a smaller system. Deceased donors already fell 2.5 percent in 2025, so an absolute drop in unused organs during that year would say nothing on its own. Read all three next to the donor count and the transplant count, or a shrinking system will read as a fixed one.
What is it connected to?
Fills with researchdialysis capacity and cost, the allocation policy changes of the OPTN, organ preservation and perfusion technology, and xenotransplantation all plausibly bear on this. Relation type and evidence grade were not established in this round.
What these sources do not say
- The arithmetic on the source page does not close. The annual data report states 62,112 organs recovered in 2024 and 42,048 transplanted, and separately states 11,244 recovered but not transplanted, which it calls 20.7 percent of all organs recovered combined. Those three figures cannot share one denominator. Recovery for research is part of the gap — the same chapter notes 3,243 pancreata recovered for research in 2024 — but it does not close the whole difference, and the chapter does not define the terms apart. This entry therefore leans on 11,244 and 20.7 percent and does not print a subtraction.
- Organs that were never recovered are not counted anywhere here. The report covers organs recovered and then unused. Consented donors whose organs were never recovered at all sit outside it, so the number of transplants the system failed to produce is larger than 11,244 by an amount none of these sources states.
- There is no state or regional breakdown. Certification runs by donation service area, which is the unit CMS acts on, yet no document opened here reported nonuse by area or by state alongside a national total.
- There is no 2025 nonuse figure yet. Donation and transplant counts for 2025 are published, but the nonuse rate is only available through 2024, so whether the trend continued through the year in which donation fell is unknown.
- Nobody counts the deaths this causes. Waiting list deaths are reported by year, but no document opened here connects a specific unused organ to a specific death, and the question of who would have received the 11,244 organs is not modeled in anything read for this entry.
- The findings behind the 2025 oversight hearing were not read. The date and subject of the hearing are confirmed; the federal investigation material that prompted it was not reachable.
See the evidence
| Item | Source | Confirmation |
|---|---|---|
| 11,244 organs recovered and not transplanted in 2024 · 20.7 percent of all organs recovered · kidney nonuse 29.3 percent and 9,103 kidneys as 4,425 left, 4,506 right and 172 en bloc · organs transplanted per donor 2.66 from 3.08 · 62,112 recovered and 42,048 transplanted · 3,243 pancreata recovered for research | OPTN/SRTR 2024 Annual Data Report, Deceased Organ Donation chapter, published 2026 | 2026-08-07 |
| 46,750 transplants in 2024 · 16,989 deceased donors with 9,705 after brain death and 7,284 after circulatory death · 167,230 unique waiting list patients with 70,600 added · kidney nonuse 29.3 percent against 18.2 percent in 2013 | OPTN/SRTR 2024 Annual Data Report, Overview chapter, published 2026 | 2026-08-07 |
| 2025 totals — 49,064 transplants · 16,550 deceased donors, down 2.5 percent and the first dip in more than a decade · 7,237 living donors · 27,573 kidney transplants split 21,052 deceased and 6,521 living · more than 90,000 waiting for a kidney | UNOS release, 2026-01-28 | 2026-08-07 |
| Waiting list deaths fell to 13 per day in 2023 from 16 per day in 2021 | UNOS, 2025-04-14 | 2026-08-07 |
| CMS proposed rule CMS-3409-P issued 2026-01-28 with comments to 2026-03-31 · three tier recertification · roughly half of existing organ procurement organizations would not qualify for automatic recertification | Crowell and Moring client alert, 2026-02-13 | 2026-08-07 |
| CMS survey guidance of 2026-03-11 on the organ donation process, including the requirement to cite noncompliance on identification irrespective of any later corrective action | Holland and Knight alert, 2026-03-18 | 2026-08-07 |
| 193 adult centers studied 2021-04 to 2023-12 · suboptimal kidneys refused by a median of 9 centers against 5 for other kidneys · authors suggest that the recent removal of survival rate metrics from the conditions of participation of Medicare might help mitigate risk aversion, and report substantial center-level variation continuing under the kidney allocation policy launched 2021-03-15 | Peer reviewed study via PubMed Central, published 2026-01-12 | 2026-08-07 |
| OPTN transplant program metrics — 90 day and one year conditional graft survival from 2022-07, offer acceptance from 2023-07, pre-transplant mortality no earlier than 2024-07, approved 2021-12 | The Organ Donation and Transplantation Alliance, quality corner | 2026-08-07 |
| Donation after circulatory death at 25 percent of all donations in 2020 and 35 percent in 2023 · recovered kidneys that were not usable more than doubled over four years | The Organ Donation and Transplantation Alliance, 2023 analysis of the CMS certification changes | 2026-08-07 |
| The American Institutes for Research selected by HRSA as the OPTN Board Support contractor in 2024-08 · a statement on the hearing of 2025-07-22 on organ procurement and transplant oversight | American Society of Transplantation, OPTN modernization updates | 2026-08-07 |
| The hearing of 2025-07-22 was held by the Oversight and Investigations Subcommittee of the House Committee on Energy and Commerce | UNOS, updates from the hearing of 2025-07-22 | 2026-08-07 |
| Kidney nonuse broken out by biopsy status, donor age and kidney donor profile index for 2024 | OPTN/SRTR 2024 Annual Data Report, Kidney chapter | URL not confirmed: the chapter exceeds the fetch size limit and could not be opened |
| HRSA modernization actions during 2025 and 2026, and the federal findings that prompted the July 2025 hearing | HRSA and HHS | URL not confirmed: HTTP 403 returned on every attempt |
Two chapters of the annual data report were read directly on the registry site of the SRTR; the kidney chapter of the same report could not be loaded. The kidney nonuse rate of 29.3 percent for 2024 appears in both the overview chapter and the deceased organ donation chapter and matches across them, and the kidney count of 9,103 equals 4,425 left plus 4,506 right plus 172 en bloc, which is the one place where the reported figures reconcile exactly. Federal pages at hrsa.gov, hhs.gov and house.gov returned HTTP 403 to every request in this session, so the regulatory items above rest on law firm summaries rather than on the rule text, and the findings of the 2025 federal investigation were not read at all. For the same reason the committee and the subcommittee that held the hearing of 2025-07-22 are confirmed from a transplant network page rather than from the announcement of the committee itself. Where a figure appeared only in a search summary and could not be opened, it was left out of this entry entirely.
This table holds 13 evidence rows, 11 of which carry a source you can open · 7 distinct sources. How this table is made
People affected
Estimated range 100,000–167,230 As of 2024 to 2026-01
Derivation chain
| Term | Value | Source | Assumption |
|---|---|---|---|
| People on a US solid organ transplant waiting list at any one time, start of 2026 | 100,000 | UNOS release 2026-01-28 reporting OPTN data | The release states more than 100,000 people currently waiting, so this is a stated floor rather than a point estimate. Range low |
| Unique patients on a US solid organ transplant waiting list at any point during 2024 | 167,230 | OPTN/SRTR 2024 Annual Data Report, Overview chapter | Annual prevalence. It counts everybody listed during the year, including those who were transplanted, died or were removed before the year ended. 70,600 of them were added during 2024. Range high |
Sensitivity The width of this range is not a confidence interval. It is the gap between point prevalence and annual prevalence: the low value counts everybody waiting on one day, the high value counts everybody who appeared on a list at any point in a calendar year, so anyone listed and then transplanted, deceased or removed during 2024 shows up only in the high value. The two bounds also come from different years, 2026-01 and 2024, because no single source read here reports both measures for the same year. Two limits run in opposite directions. Upward: nonuse also lands on donor families who consented and produced no transplant, and organs from consented donors that were never recovered at all sit outside the reported nonuse figure entirely, so the population touched by the failure is wider than the waiting list. Downward: not every candidate on a list would have been a match for one of the 11,244 organs recovered and not transplanted in 2024, so the number of people whose wait was actually lengthened by nonuse is smaller than either bound and was not derived here.
Regional breakdown Certification of organ procurement organizations runs by donation service area, but every nonuse and waiting list figure opened for this entry is national. No document read here gave nonuse counts or waiting list counts by state or by donation service area alongside a national total, so no measured breakdown could be assembled. Splitting the national figure by state population would be proportional allocation, which has no basis here because transplant centers, listing practice and donation service area boundaries are all distributed unevenly with respect to population.
What is missing 2
Grouped by how it gets filled, not by block number — that axis is the only one that tells a reader what can be done next.
- SectionWhat is it connected to?
dialysis capacity and cost, the allocation policy changes of the OPTN, organ preservation and perfusion technology, and xenotransplantation all plausibly bear on this. Relation type and evidence grade were not established in this round.
Fills with research
- SectionWhat is the state now, and what should it be?
no official target for the nonuse rate appears in any document opened for this entry. CMS certifies organ procurement organizations against a donation rate and a transplantation rate under a three tier rule, and the OPTN grades transplant programs on offer acceptance and on survival after transplant, but none of the sources read here names a level that the share of recovered and unused organs is supposed to reach.
Needs a new measurement
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